Night Comments: Lido appetite now short-term weakness in oil prices will be adjusted?

Number of visits: Date:2016-03-15

Crude oil fundamentals:

The International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday (March 11) released monthly report that oil prices have bottomed out, as the United States and other non-OPEC (OPEC) production deceleration rate, while Iran's crude oil production increase is not as expected significant. IEA noted that non-OPEC oil-producing countries this year production is expected to fall 750,000 barrels / day, from the previous forecast of 60 million barrels / day significantly reduced nearly 25%. IEA believes this year, US crude oil production will fall by 53 million barrels / day. February OPEC crude oil production will fall by 90,000 barrels / day, due to Nigeria, Iraq and the United Arab Emirates and other countries to shut down part of the accidents occurred, total production decreased by 35 million barrels / day. At the same time, the magnitude of Iran's production recovery is not as significant as expected, the country's output growth in February, or 22 million barrels / day, suggesting that the country's output recovery process will be gradual.

Guoxin analysts interpret IEA monthly report, there are three views: First, the pre-oil prices continued to decline has forced oil companies began producing high-cost sales minus production; the second is the world's crude oil and related products will continue to increase inventory levels to 6 months ago daily expected to increase by 150-190 million barrels, but the pressure on the stock in the second half of this year will drop significantly, growth is expected to slow to 20 million barrels per day; Third, India and other Asian non-OECD countries and the Middle East still will contribute most of the growth in global demand, but the momentum is not stable, global oil demand growth is still there is a clear downside risk. Guoxin analysts believe sales from the IEA monthly report can be seen at both ends to reduce the trend of crude oil has had, the key long-term ups and downs of oil prices mainly to see production growth and demand growth which fell faster. EIA clearly pointed out in the report, production and marketing conditions in 2017 is difficult to achieve a more balanced state, that means in accordance with the existing situation, crude oil will be oversupply. Follow 18 pm: OPEC Monthly 00: 00-20. OPEC every move affects important way Guojiyoushi, affecting thousands of investors' nerves, in addition to the twice-yearly General Assembly OPEC, OPEC's monthly oil market report released also a glimpse into production within OPEC and world oil market supply and demand trends .

Guoxin analysts believe that if the trend of oil prices is analyzed from the marketing point of view, in fact, the reason it is difficult to draw bottoming recent rally and later running direction. What are the main factors determining the current oil price trend in the end what is it? Let's look at the following trading position data:

According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday (March 11) released data show that asset managers and hedge funds to improve for the third consecutive week, US crude oil long positions. Oil prices continued to decline in nearly two years, they believe prices have bottomed out. Today oil prices are to rise to $ 40 a barrel. CFTC data show that in the week, speculators will be in New York and London oil futures and options net long positions ended March 8 total increased by 35%. US crude oil futures and options net long positions rose to a high of November, an increase of 35,651 to 137,983. In addition, hedge funds will also be the end of February Brent crude oil long positions increased to a record high.

Difficult to see from the above position data, funds to promote the main reason for the recent rise in oil prices. Although crude oil supply and demand did not change significantly, but because of money flooding into play profit hunters, oil prices soared to become, which in previous years has of late review detailed analysis. However, because of last week after running close to $ 40 (in WTI04 contract prices, for example, after the same) to drive up in the capital, where long and short significant differences expected to be cautious near the 40 dollars to buy low and do more in the near main unless there is good news of new stimulus. Of course, also can not be dropped, because once prices fell bulls agency deems appropriate "cheap" position when will have holdings, pre-Ta funding approach will buy. Guoxin analyze the market after the week-long "fight" in the face of the important $ 40 mark, the bulls will pause again poised to break or waiting for new guidelines, but the price should not fall too far.

Crude oil technical:

WTI04 after US crude oil futures prices rose on Friday (March 11) finishing high close, rose 1.27%, opening 37.99, up 39.02, the lowest 37.92, closing at 38.49, closing date K Movies bring a small candle, the oscillation signal, W double bottom up form has not changed, the medium-term bullish. Today Asian plate section 38.40 after opening lower volatility, as the current reported 38.15, short-term shocks weak, medium-term orientation on the strong side.


WTI04 contract price K line chart

Spot heavy one hour chart, March 11 following the outer disk shock upstream, opening 1868, the highest 1905, lowest 1863, 1885 closing price hit a new high after the fall 1905, the oscillation signal. 1882 opening today after the shock down, as of press before 1868 reported. Short-term shocks weak, medium-term orientation firmer. Operation radicals buy low sell high, steady person stepped back mainly to do more.


Spot heavy oil K 1 hour chart

Spot heavy trading strategy:

Radicals: 1870 near the short, stop 1910, below the 1840 target;

Do near over 1800, stop 1760, above the 1840 target;

Sound by: the original more than a single continue to hold, near the Opening 1800, stop 1760, above the 2000 target.


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