Early assessment: OPEC monthly report significant overcapacity in the downstream oil

Number of visits: Date:2016-03-15

Market Review


Crude oil rebounded significant weakness, the US crude oil fell 2.12%, closing at 40.13; Brent crude closed at 41.46, down 1.57%. Spot heavy opening in 1882, the US matching period refresh intraday low of 1807, closed in late 1832, volatility 80 points intraday, down 2.81%.

Market Overview

According to Reuters: Libyan engineers and local residents said suspected militants attacked an important oil field in eastern Libya.

According to Reuters quoted traders said energy consultancy Genscape data showed Cushing crude oil inventories increased 58.6 million barrels of oil approaching its capacity limits; Wednesday, analysts believe the upcoming EIA crude oil inventories for the week is expected to record a fifth straight week a rise.

OPEC's latest monthly forecast 2016 global oil demand growth of 1.25 million barrels, while demand for OPEC oil this year, down nearly 10 million barrels / day. Monthly record that Iran yield increased maximum 20 years, Saudi production was flat.

Summary Understanding the market

Guoxin analyst, Russia is actively preparing for the oil-producing countries meeting and Iran show good recovery in oil production to the next level before the sanctions situation, Iran may be involved in the production freeze agreement; however, OPEC has not officially commented. OPEC monthly report released yesterday, the IEA tone contrast, oil demand in 2016 down to 3152 barrels / day, OPEC crude oil output in February compared with January fell 17.5 million barrels of crude oil in 2016 and is expected to market oversupply from 72 million barrels / day increase to 76 million barrels / day; the value of Iran's crude oil production increased in February to reach the largest increase since 1997. OPEC monthly oil demand forecast down oil, expressed non-OPEC production fell increased uncertainty, Iran increased production create the maximum of 20 years, highlighting the crude oil market overcapacity status worsened. Frozen production agreement also organizing discussions on the crude oil market oversupply substantial improvements has not yet formed.

technical analysis


Figure 1. Spot the heavy oil K line chart

Guoxin analysts believe that the stock opened low heavy Asian trading hours; extended losses in European trading hours, from the 1870-1868 drop, down 2.33%; the United States under the disc period price focus moved to 1807, the decline was expanded to 4.07 percent, near the close, the decline narrowed, closing at 1832, down 2.81%. K line break at 5-day moving average gynecological hatched and started away on Boolean track rail line, upward trend weakened, or sideways into the weak downward. After double-dip shape to build complete, the process of strengthening the right shoulder, the current spot of heavy oil into the high probability of finishing the wide range of 1680-1860. MACD double flared horizontal run Hongzhu shortened, neutral ones weakening trend; after Sicha KDJ third-line flared down, short-term bearish. Comprehensive look into the heavy spot wide consolidation trend, short-term rallies short appropriate.


Figure 2. Spot heavy hourly charts

Spot heavy trading strategy

Support levels: 1700; 1680;

Resistance: 1960; 2000;

Radical, 1850 near empty single wet storage admission, target 1780, stop loss 1875. Changing market, instant suggestions please sign Guoxin advisor platforms accessible.

Robust who wait and see.

Today's focus


Table 2. List of important data

Bank of Japan announced interest rate decision, beware cause huge fluctuations in the oil price, Guoxin research suggest that investors wet storage short-term operation, strict full stop.

instruction manual:

1, the trend is king, flow, contrarian for the dead;

2, the establishment of the position will be set to stop, do not leave things to chance;

3, the vagaries of the market days, subject to change, please pay attention to instant suggestions related comments, as well as consultants platforms.

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