Late Review: Crude oil bulls have changed in Russia and fall?

Number of visits: Date:2016-03-15

Crude oil fundamentals:

Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Monday forecast 2016 global oil demand will be lower than its previous forecast, OPEC oil-producing countries rather than the supply of low oil prices more toughness will intensify this year, the excess supply in the oil market situation.

Russian Energy Minister Novak (AlexanderNovak) Monday (March 14) at the end of the talks after Tehran said that the freezing of the global oil production agreement signed in April may be, but Iran should be excluded, the country suffered years of sanctions after the right to increase.

Guoxin analysts believe the implication is that OPEC crude oil production due to reasons of non-OPEC countries will further exacerbate the oversupply. This is in stark contrast compared with yesterday's announcement of the IEA monthly report, the investors who listen to? Guoxin think oil producers led public statements are not purposeful, not the whole letter. March 20 vowed to "freeze production meeting" changed on a whim, it is expected to eventually become a bigger probability of bubbles.


Guoxin mentioned yesterday SINGLE trend of oil prices from the sales point of view, is not oil prices have nearly 50% of the grounds. Late review also noted a sharp rebound in oil prices support the backbone of bargain-hunting approach is speculative capital. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday (March 11) released data show that asset managers and hedge funds consecutive weeks to raise the US crude oil long positions. Then oil prices from last night to today, whether any connection with the crash time Asian Handicap speculative funds holdings of long positions about it? Specific data of the current position is not known, but Guoxin think this is not important. We can infer from their original positions in the cost of oil prices below $ 35 to run for long pre-huge attraction, while short-selling hedge Oil producers will lose momentum. Because oil prices to below $ 35 a majority of oil's cost of production lines, no reason to hedge hedging, if speculative investment institutions not to choose short sale, then further sell into the kinetic energy will be lost, prices will once again stabilizes. If the future of a major change in supply and demand, and the prices will go further, otherwise repeat concussion seesaw until it reaches a new equilibrium. Should pay attention to short-term commodity futures price movements and 4:30 tonight, the United States API crude oil inventory report.

Crude oil technical:

On Monday (March 14) after US crude oil futures contract price shocks WTI04 unilateral decline, 2.91%, opening 38.17, up 38.77, the lowest 36.68, closing at 37.37, closing date K under the shadow Yinxian shock weak signal, W double bottom up form has not changed, the medium-term bullish. Sub-section 37.38 in morning trading after the opening bell continued to fall, as the current reported 36.68,, 36.68 has some support. Short-term shocks weak, medium-term upward trend.


WTI04 contract price K line chart

Spot heavy one hour chart, March 14 following the international oil prices callback, opening 1882, the highest 1887, lowest 1807, 1832 closing price back below the weak signal. After the 1843 opening today to continue down, as of press time reported before 1800. Short-term shocks weak, medium-term orientation firmer. Operation radicals buy low sell high, steady person stepped back mainly to do more.


Spot heavy oil K 1 hour chart

Spot heavy trading strategy:

Radicals: near 1800, with a stop 1760, above the 1840 target;

Near the 1840 short, stop 1880, below the 1800 target;

Sound by: the original more than a single continue to hold, near the Opening 1800, stop 1760, above the 1880 target.


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